An Audit of Climate Modelling Scenario RCP8.5

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An objective audit of climate modelling scenario RCP8.5.

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Title: An Audit of Climate Modelling Scenario RCP8.5
Author(s): John McLean (PhD)
Pages: 28
Date: September 2020

This is an objective audit of scenario RCP8.5, widely used by climate modellers to illustrate a “worst case” scenario regards future climate on either a global or regional basis.  The IPCC puts particular emphasis on this scenario, which it refers to as “business as usual” but in fact i s “business unusual” because it makes the assumption that there will be little technological development until at least year 2100 and it makes huge assumptions about energy consumption and the sources of that energy.  In total 20 findings are made about this scenario, which is so implausible that it should be ignored.

(A new variant of RCP8.5, known as SSP5-8.5, is likely to appear in the IPCC’s sixth climate assessment report, which is to be published in 2021.  The new scenario makes very similar assumptions to RCP8.5 and is equally implausible.)


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